Weekly Geophysical: 09 May 2014


Summary of report week: USGS is listing 31 events, EMSC is listing 35 events and GFZ Potsdam is listing 31 events. You can view each of these listings below. There were no active category force storms during the week of the report. Max 4 actively erupting volcanoes on any one day out of 4 during the week, over and above the 17 always erupting. An additional 26 volcanoes showing unrest activity.
Using converted magnitudes (mb to Mw etc) USGS converts to 80 events and EMSC converts to 91 events. Potsdam events cannot normally be converted as the scale is not always known.

Earthquakes for w/e 09 May 2014

Full details of Mag 6+ earthquakes can be found here but the block details of USGS provided M6+ are shown below.

The listings for each of the main global providers is shown below. All times are in Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) 31 events from USGS (See expanded details if any for links to USGS or in line links for Quake Watch or Google location map)

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2014-05-09 21:51, -7.0315, 154.8564, 5.1 mb, 33.2, Solomon Isls. (193)
2014-05-09 18:14, -23.4279, -175.1335, 5.0 mb, 7.0, Tonga Isls. Region (174)
2014-05-09 14:03, -18.354, -178.05, 5.6 mb, 527.7, Fiji Isls. Region (181)
2014-05-09 12:54, 8.7611, 126.352, 5.0 mb, 86.1, Mindanao. Philippines (259)
2014-05-09 10:32, -18.9225, -175.6019, 5.8 mwp, 153.4, Tonga Isls. (173)
2014-05-09 05:44, 5.6971, 125.74, 5.5 mb, 143.6, Mindanao. Philippines (259)
2014-05-08 17:00, 17.3847, -100.6563, 6.4 mww, 24.0, Guerrero. Mexico (59)
2014-05-08 15:52, 49.6759, 156.1128, 5.2 mb, 62.8, Kuril Isls. (221)
2014-05-08 11:46, -4.9356, 152.2614, 5.2 mb, 71.2, New Britain Region. P.N.G. (192)
2014-05-07 13:27, -19.9688, -70.951, 5.0 mb, 13.0, Nr. Coast Of Nthn Chile (122)
2014-05-07 04:45, -7.0072, 154.8209, 5.6 mb, 10.0, Solomon Isls. (193)
2014-05-07 04:20, -6.9499, 154.8797, 6.1 mwp, 1.0, Solomon Isls. (193)
2014-05-06 20:52, -36.3905, -96.8083, 6.1 mwb, 9.9, West Chile Rise (686)
2014-05-06 06:23, -6.3287, 154.7548, 5.0 mb, 77.1, Solomon Isls. (193)
2014-05-06 04:32, -20.0898, -177.6545, 5.7 mb, 551.5, Fiji Isls. Region (181)
2014-05-06 00:58, 19.6198, 99.4607, 5.0 mb, 10.0, Thailand (733)
2014-05-05 22:52, -19.9358, -70.8812, 5.0 mb, 26.3, Nr. Coast Of Nthn Chile (122)
2014-05-05 13:03, -15.8618, 167.7635, 5.3 mb, 173.8, Vanuatu Isls. (186)
2014-05-05 11:21, -20.2082, -70.7817, 5.4 mb, 14.6, Nr. Coast Of Nthn Chile (122)
2014-05-05 11:08, 19.7026, 99.6826, 6.0 mwp, 7.4, Thailand (733)
2014-05-05 02:24, -9.7445, 159.745, 5.3 mb, 30.2, Solomon Isls. (193)
2014-05-04 20:23, 40.6466, 77.6565, 5.4 mb, 10.0, Kyrgyzstan-Xinjiang Border Reg. (320)
2014-05-04 20:18, 34.8621, 139.3117, 6.0 mwb, 155.1, Nr. S. Coast Of Honshu. Japan (230)
2014-05-04 09:38, -25.8296, 178.2496, 5.2 mb, 618.7, South Of Fiji Isls. (171)
2014-05-04 09:25, -25.7976, 178.2078, 6.1 mb, 610.6, South Of Fiji Isls. (171)
2014-05-04 09:15, -24.6421, 179.0836, 6.6 mwp, 527.6, South Of Fiji Isls. (171) {T}
2014-05-04 08:53, 4.2951, 126.6066, 5.0 mb, 71.6, Talaud Isls. Ind. (263)
2014-05-04 04:46, -20.0328, -71.0566, 5.0 mb, 6.1, Off Coast Of Nthn Chile (121)
2014-05-03 14:47, 1.8369, 97.8592, 5.4 mb, 57.0, Nthn Sumatra. Ind. (706)
2014-05-03 10:57, 22.3192, 144.004, 5.5 mb, 68.8, Volcano Isls. Japan Region (213)
2014-05-03 08:57, 67.6302, -162.2066, 5.5 mb, 0.9, Nthn Alaska (676)

Mag 6+ events brief details

Magnitude 6.4 Guerrero. Mexico

World GlobeThursday, May 08, 2014 @ 17:00:17 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 17.385°N,  100.656°W
  • Depth: 24.0 km
  • Region: Guerrero. Mexico

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000qea2

Magnitude 6.1 Solomon Islands

World GlobeWednesday, May 07, 2014 @ 04:20:33 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 6.950°S,  154.880°E
  • Depth: 1.0 km
  • Region: Solomon Islands

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000qcqe

Magnitude 6.1 West Chile Rise

World GlobeTuesday, May 06, 2014 @ 20:52:26 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 36.391°S,  96.808°W
  • Depth: 9.9 km
  • Region: West Chile Rise

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000qcg4

Magnitude 6.0 Thailand

World GlobeMonday, May 05, 2014 @ 11:08:43 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 19.703°N,  99.683°E
  • Depth: 7.4 km
  • Region: Thailand

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000qack

Magnitude 6.0 Near S. Coast Of Honshu. Japan

World GlobeSunday, May 04, 2014 @ 20:18:24 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 34.862°N,  139.312°E
  • Depth: 155.1 km
  • Region: Near S. Coast Of Honshu. Japan

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000q9sv

Magnitude 6.1 South Of Fiji Islands

World GlobeSunday, May 04, 2014 @ 09:25:14 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 25.798°S,  178.208°E
  • Depth: 610.6 km
  • Region: South Of Fiji Islands

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000q98e

Magnitude 6.6 South Of Fiji Islands

World GlobeSunday, May 04, 2014 @ 09:15:53 UTC
Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser [→]

  • Location: 24.642°S,  179.084°E
  • Depth: 527.6 km
  • Region: South Of Fiji Islands

  • Distances:
    • 15km (9mi) N of Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico
    • 31km (19mi) NW of Atoyac de Alvarez, Mexico
    • 66km (41mi) ESE of Petatlan, Mexico
    • 73km (45mi) WNW of Coyuca de Benitez, Mexico
    • 277km (172mi) SW of Mexico City, Mexico
  • Event ID: usb000q98a

All earthquakes in the list and the expanded details (if any) above, are sourced from USGS Links go to the USGS web site but if you are viewing this more than 30 days after the event the web page will not be available unless it was a significant quake.

35 events from EMSC

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2014-05-09 21:51, -6.9932, 154.9268, 5.1 mb, 40.0, Bougainville Region P.N.G.
2014-05-09 18:14, -23.7158, -175.1347, 5.1 mb, 10.0, Tonga Region
2014-05-09 14:03, -18.4562, -178.1095, 5.4 mb, 508.0, Fiji Region
2014-05-09 13:55, -23.2988, 170.4402, 5.1 mb, 30.0, SE Of Loyalty Isls.
2014-05-09 12:54, 8.7692, 126.4894, 5.0 mb, 74.0, Mindanao Philippines
2014-05-09 10:32, -18.9641, -175.5866, 5.9 Mw, 169.0, Tonga
2014-05-09 05:44, 5.7168, 125.8332, 5.4 Mw, 131.0, Mindanao Philippines
2014-05-08 17:00, 17.3283, -100.7532, 6.4 Mw, 30.0, Guerrero Mexico
2014-05-08 15:52, 49.6868, 156.0426, 5.1 mb, 57.0, Kuril Isls.
2014-05-08 11:46, -4.9765, 152.3092, 5.2 mb, 70.0, New Britain Region P.N.G.
2014-05-07 14:11, 25.6097, 102.243, 5.0 mb, 10.0, Yunnan China
2014-05-07 04:45, -6.97, 154.8808, 5.6 mb, 10.0, Bougainville Region P.N.G.
2014-05-07 04:20, -6.9335, 154.8697, 6.0 Mw, 10.0, Bougainville Region P.N.G.
2014-05-06 23:09, 52.9117, 159.9831, 5.0 mb, 49.0, Off E. Coast Of Kamchatka
2014-05-06 20:52, -36.2851, -96.8948, 6.2 Mw, 10.0, West Chile Rise
2014-05-06 12:18, -5.549, 151.7968, 5.0 mb, 30.0, New Britain Region P.N.G.
2014-05-06 06:23, -6.3485, 154.7182, 5.1 mb, 80.0, Bougainville Region P.N.G.
2014-05-06 04:32, -20.1274, -177.69, 5.3 Mw, 553.0, Fiji Region
2014-05-06 00:58, 19.6402, 99.5674, 5.2 Mw, 10.0, Thailand
2014-05-06 00:50, 19.6816, 99.8171, 5.2 Mw, 2.0, Thailand
2014-05-05 13:03, -15.8727, 167.832, 5.2 mb, 189.0, Vanuatu
2014-05-05 11:21, -20.2177, -70.7456, 5.2 Mw, 10.0, Offshore Tarapaca Chile
2014-05-05 11:08, 19.6775, 99.7753, 6.2 Mw, 10.0, Thailand
2014-05-05 02:24, -9.7493, 159.8036, 5.3 mb, 33.0, Solomon Isls.
2014-05-04 20:23, 40.6212, 77.7928, 5.3 mb, 10.0, Sthn Xinjiang China
2014-05-04 20:18, 34.8404, 139.3613, 6.0 Mw, 152.0, Nr. S. Coast Of Honshu Japan
2014-05-04 09:38, -25.8403, 178.2672, 5.4 mb, 610.0, South Of Fiji Isls.
2014-05-04 09:25, -25.8586, 178.2322, 6.3 Mw, 616.0, South Of Fiji Isls.
2014-05-04 09:15, -24.8153, 179.1181, 6.6 Mw, 539.0, South Of Fiji Isls.
2014-05-04 08:53, 4.2663, 126.6683, 5.0 mb, 91.0, Kepulauan Talaud Ind.
2014-05-04 04:46, -20.0394, -70.9798, 5.0 Mw, 10.0, Offshore Tarapaca Chile
2014-05-03 14:47, 1.9473, 97.93, 5.2 Mw, 60.0, Nias Region Ind.
2014-05-03 10:57, 22.2965, 144.0036, 5.6 Mw, 100.0, Volcano Isls. Japan Region
2014-05-03 08:57, 67.7134, -162.3669, 5.6 Mw, 10.0, Nthn Alaska
2014-05-03 04:51, -11.4993, 162.5096, 5.1 mb, 34.0, Solomon Isls.

All earthquakes in the above list are sourced from EMSC. Magnitude 6 and upwards events link directly to the EMSC web site for the event.

31 events from GFZ Potsdam

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2014-05-09 21:51, -6.96, 154.87, 5.1 M, 34.0, Solomon Isls.
2014-05-09 18:14, -23.4, -175.34, 5.1 M, 10.0, Tonga Isls. Region
2014-05-09 14:03, -18.4, -178.17, 5.3 M, 521.0, Fiji Isls. Region
2014-05-09 13:55, -23.18, 170.5, 5.1 M, 10.0, SE Of Loyalty Isls.
2014-05-09 12:54, 8.84, 126.59, 5.0 M, 52.0, Mindanao. Philippines
2014-05-09 10:32, -18.95, -175.66, 5.9 M, 217.0, Tonga Isls.
2014-05-09 05:44, 5.74, 125.82, 5.4 M, 133.0, Mindanao. Philippines
2014-05-08 17:00, 17.38, -100.69, 6.4 M, 37.0, Guerrero. Mexico
2014-05-08 15:52, 49.62, 156.11, 5.1 M, 52.0, Kuril Isls.
2014-05-07 04:45, -6.99, 154.79, 5.2 M, 39.0, Solomon Isls.
2014-05-07 04:20, -6.94, 154.8, 6.0 M, 36.0, Solomon Isls.
2014-05-06 23:09, 52.98, 159.88, 5.2 M, 34.0, Off E. Coast Of Kamchatka
2014-05-06 20:52, -36.41, -97.04, 6.2 M, 10.0, West Chile Rise
2014-05-06 06:23, -6.33, 154.72, 5.1 M, 76.0, Solomon Isls.
2014-05-06 04:32, -20.07, -177.88, 5.2 M, 544.0, Fiji Isls. Region
2014-05-06 00:58, 19.71, 99.49, 5.2 M, 10.0, Thailand
2014-05-05 11:21, -20.21, -70.59, 5.2 M, 18.0, Nr. Coast Of Nthn Chile
2014-05-05 11:08, 19.71, 99.79, 6.2 M, 10.0, Thailand
2014-05-05 04:59, 60.78, -150.02, 5.0 M, 10.0, Kenai Peninsula. Alaska
2014-05-05 02:24, -9.72, 159.8, 5.2 M, 28.0, Solomon Isls.
2014-05-05 00:13, -23.74, -175.21, 5.0 M, 10.0, Tonga Isls. Region
2014-05-04 20:23, 40.64, 77.69, 5.2 M, 15.0, Kyrgyzstan-Xinjiang Border Reg.
2014-05-04 20:18, 34.81, 139.28, 5.9 M, 150.0, Nr. S. Coast Of Honshu. Japan
2014-05-04 09:38, -25.8, 178.2, 5.3 M, 635.0, South Of Fiji Isls.
2014-05-04 09:25, -25.82, 178.15, 6.1 M, 615.0, South Of Fiji Isls.
2014-05-04 09:15, -24.63, 178.99, 6.2 M, 516.0, South Of Fiji Isls.
2014-05-04 08:53, 4.28, 126.72, 5.0 M, 93.0, Talaud Isls. Ind.
2014-05-03 14:47, 1.96, 97.94, 5.1 M, 63.0, Nthn Sumatra. Ind.
2014-05-03 10:57, 22.28, 144.12, 5.6 M, 81.0, Volcano Isls. Japan Region
2014-05-03 08:57, 67.72, -162.36, 5.6 M, 10.0, Nthn Alaska
2014-05-03 04:51, -11.43, 162.52, 5.1 M, 35.0, Solomon Isls.

All earthquakes in the above list are sourced from GFZ Potsdam Links on Mag 6 and greater go direct to the GFZ Potsdam web page for the event.

All Magnitudes trend 5+

AllMagnitudes_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 5.0 to 5.9 magnitudes trend.

M5_Mags_20140509
(USGS converted values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 5.0 to 5.9 published magnitudes this week

M5_MagsCW_Published_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 5.0 to 5.9 converted magnitudes this week

M5_MagsCW_Converted_20140509
(USGS converted values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 5.0 published/converted comparison

M5CtoPDifference_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 6.0 to 6.9 magnitudes trend.
M6_Mags_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Peaks of Inactivity M6

Shows the days in between Mag 6 band events. Days where a Mag 6 earthquake occurs are zero on the chart.

M6Inactivity-052wks_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

M6Inactivity-104wks_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 7.0 to 7.9 magnitudes trend.

M7_Mags_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Peaks of Inactivity M7

Shows the days in between Mag 7 band events. Days where a Mag 7 earthquake occurs are zero on the chart.

M7Inactivity-104wks_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Mag 8.0+ magnitudes trend

M8_Mags_20140509
(USGS published values. Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Earthquake Statistics

QuakeStats_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)
(See explanation here.)

This week I have extended the time displayed on each of the M5, M6, and M7 to match the dataset of the M8. The only difference that remains is that the M8 data is a 104 week persiod whereas the other are 52 week periods.

Rolling 52 Week M5 Counts and Energy(USGS Published & Calculated)

QS_M5_RollingCE_20140509

Rolling 52 Week M6 Counts and Energy(USGS Published)

QS_M6_RollingCE_20140509

Rolling 52 Week M7 Counts and Energy(USGS Published)

QS_M7_RollingCE_20140509

Rolling 52 Week M8 Counts and Energy(USGS Published)

QS_M8_RollingCE_20140509

Rolling Global Counts -v- Energy(USGS Published)
RollingGlobalCount-v-Energy_20140509

Global Single Magnitude Equivalent

This represents the total energy output of Mag 5+ Published USGS earthquakes, in a rolling 52 week period, summed and converted back to an approximate single magnitude value, i.e. the magnitude of a quake of comparable energy value.
SingleMagnitudeGlobal_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Global Single Magnitude Equivalents By Mag Band

SMGlobal_M5-6-7_20140509

Volcanoes

Volcano information gathered from various sources, including the Smithsonian Weekly Volcanic Activity Report from which confirmation of reports is taken. A volcano is only included in the listing if there is significant ash above 1km height (white/steam clouds are not counted) or there is a significant lava flow. Crater incandescence, unless accompanied by the either of the preceding does qualify as an eruption.

Volcano Chart

Volcanoes_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Volcanoes erupting this week contributing to the chart.(4)

Dukono (Halmahera Indonesia)
Reventador (Ecuador)
Shiveluch (Kamchatka. Russia)
Ubinas (Peru)

Volcanoes active this week contributing to the chart. (26)

Ahyi (Mariana Islands USA)
Bagana (Papua New Guinea)
Batu Tara (Sunda Islands Indonesia)
Chaparrastique [San Miguel] (El Salvador)
Chirinkotan (Russia)
Chirpoi (Russia)
Colima (México)
Copahue (Chile)
Etna (Sicily Italy)
Fuego (Guatemala)
Kavachi [Undersea] (Solomon Islands)
Kelut (E. Java. Indonesia)
Marapi (Indonesia)
Merapi (Indonesia)
Nishino-shima (Japan)
Nyamuragira Democratic Republic Of Congo
Pacaya  (Guatemala)
Poas (Costa Rica)
Popocatépetl (México)
Semeru (E Java. Indonesia)
Shishaldin (Fox Islands. USA)
Sinabung (Indonesia)
Slamet volcano (West Java)
Soputan (Indonesia)
Suwanose-jima (Ryuku Islands)
Tungurahua (Ecuador)

KVERT web page: Kamchatka and the Northern Kuriles volcanoes: Erupting or Restless

Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre advisories

Anchorage VAAC
Australian VAAC
Buenos Aires VAAC
London VAAC
Montréal VAAC
Tokyo VAAC
Toulouse VAAC
Washington VAAC
Wellington VAAC

Aviation Colour Codes


Category 1+ storms

Cat 1+ Storms Chart
CFStorms_ByDuration_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

There were no active category force storms during the week of the report.

Chart by daily category attaiment
CFStorms_ByDay_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Comparison of daily category attaiment and duration category attainment
CFStorms_Dur-Day-Compare_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The comparison chart above shows the Category force storms as they are reported for the duration of the storm. This generally includes the lead in period as the storm builds and the lead out as it decreases to tropical storm or lower force, i.e. under category force.

The day element of the comparison only shows where a storm is reported as being category force. For any day that the storm is being reported as category force the higher of any force value is taken.

If we look at a storm such as ITA we can see that the storm duration was reported as from 04 April to 14 April. Up to 0600 Zulu (GMT/UTC) on 08 April the storm was a Tropical storm. During the 8th it was Cyclone 1 so for the 8th it is counted as one unit of force. Sown below as )

On the 9th it was one, rising to Cyclone 2 by the evening so it is counted as 2 )) for the day. On the 10th it was 4 )))) and on the 11th it was Cyclone 4 dropping to Cyclone 1 so the whole day is counted as Cyclone 4 4 )))). It was back to a tropical storm again on the 12th.

The comparison gives one a better idea than using just the duration since ITA was 11 days duration, but was only Category 4 on 2 of those days.

Date: 04-14 APR 2014
Cyclone-4 ITA
ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1 -11.30  156.10 04/04/18Z   35     - TROPICAL STORM
  2 -11.80  155.70 04/05/06Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
  3 -12.20  154.90 04/05/18Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
  4 -12.10  153.90 04/06/06Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
  5 -12.30  153.50 04/06/18Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
  6 -12.10  153.50 04/07/06Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
  7 -11.70  153.20 04/07/18Z   60     - TROPICAL STORM
  8 -11.50  152.50 04/08/06Z   65     - CYCLONE-1 ) 
  9 -11.40  152.00 04/08/18Z   70     - CYCLONE-1 ) 
 10 -11.50  150.20 04/09/06Z   80     - CYCLONE-1 ))
 11 -11.70  148.70 04/09/18Z   90     - CYCLONE-2 ))
 12 -12.50  147.10 04/10/06Z  115     - CYCLONE-4 ))))
 13 -13.30  146.00 04/10/18Z  135     - CYCLONE-4 ))))
 14 -14.50  145.40 04/11/06Z  125     - CYCLONE-4 ))))
 15 -15.50  145.00 04/11/18Z   75     - CYCLONE-1 ))))
 16 -16.70  145.30 04/12/06Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
 17 -17.80  146.00 04/12/18Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 18 -20.10  148.30 04/13/06Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 19 -22.20  151.70 04/13/18Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
 20 -23.70  155.10 04/14/06Z   40     - TROPICAL STORM

Data courtesy of Unisys Weather

The category force storms contributing to the rolling calendar year chart are:

Hurricane 1 BARBARA 28/05/2013 30/05/2013
Hurricane 1 COSME 23/06/2013 27/06/2013
Typhoon 1 RUMBIA 28/06/2013 02/07/2013
Hurricane 1 DALILA 30/06/2013 07/07/2013
Hurricane 1 ERICK 04/07/2013 09/07/2013
Typhoon 4 SOULIK 07/07/2013 13/07/2013
Hurricane 1 GIL 30/07/2013 07/08/2013
Hurricane 2 HENRIETTE 03/08/2013 11/08/2013
Typhoon 4 UTOR 08/08/2013 14/08/2013
Typhoon 1 TRAMI 17/08/2013 21/08/2013
Typhoon 1 PEWA 18/08/2013 25/08/2013
Hurricane 1 HUMBERTO 08/09/2013 19/09/2013
Hurricane 1 INGRID 12/09/2013 17/09/2013
Hurricane 1 MANUEL 13/09/2013 20/09/2013
Super Typhoon 5 USAGI 16/09/2013 22/09/2013
Typhoon 2 PABUK 21/09/2013 26/09/2013
Typhoon 2 WUTIP 26/09/2013 30/09/2013
Typhoon 2 FITOW 30/09/2013 06/10/2013
Typhoon 4 DANAS 03/10/2013 08/10/2013
Typhoon 3 NARI 09/10/2013 15/10/2013
Cyclone 5 PHAILIN 09/10/2013 12/10/2013
Typhoon 4 WIPHA 10/10/2013 15/10/2013
Super Typhoon 5 FRANCISCO 16/10/2013 25/10/2013
Typhoon 4 LEKIMA 20/10/2013 22/10/2013
Hurricane 3 RAYMOND 20/10/2013 30/10/2013
Typhoon 3 KROSA 29/10/2013 04/11/2013
Super Typhoon 5 HAIYAN 03/11/2013 11/11/2013
Cyclone 1 LEHAR 23/11/2013 28/11/2013
Cyclone 1 MADI 06/12/2013 12/12/2013
Cyclone 4 AMARA 16/12/2013 23/12/2013
Cyclone 5 BRUCE 17/12/2013 24/12/2013
Cyclone 2 CHRISTINE 28/12/2013 30/12/2013
Cyclone 3 BEJISA 29/12/2013 31/12/2013
Cyclone 3 BEJISA 01/01/2014 05/01/2014
Cyclone 4 IAN 05/01/2014 13/01/2014
Cyclone 4 COLIN 09/01/2014 15/01/2014
Cyclone 1 GUITO 18/02/2014 22/02/2014
Typhoon 1 FAXAI 28/02/2014 06/03/2014
Cyclone 1 LUSI 09/03/2014 13/03/2014
Cyclone 3 GILLIAN 21/03/2014 23/03/2014
Cyclone 2 HELLEN 28/03/2014 30/03/2014
Cyclone 4 ITA 04/04/2014 14/04/2014
Cyclone 2 JACK 18/04/2014 22/04/2014
Typhoon 1 TAPAH 27/04/2014 01/05/2014

Solar Flux and Other Indices

SFU/AP Chart

SFU-APIndices_20140509
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Being just after the start of the month the Potsdam AP and other indexes have been updated. Normally these are posted on my Solar Watch blog but I have decided they should be posted here in future.

I track the changes in predictions to solar flux and sunspot counts in addition to just graphing the figures. This month shows a huge (comparatively) increase in the prediction curve for both as they keep on pushing the double-peak scenario. It does now look as if there may indeed be a double peak, however I still doubt if it will be anything like the levels they predict.

Note also the rather strange hockey stick type change on the Australian SFU chart. Mmm.

The main chart

Potsdam_Smoothed-SFU-AP_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The NASA chart

ssn_predict_l_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in the fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number reached 75.0 in October 2013) so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again towards this second peak over the last five months and has now surpassed the level of the first peak (66.9 in February 2012). Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first. We are currently over five years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Source of text and image

Flux Prediction Changes

The chart of the changes in prediction over the months for Solar Flux Units
NOAA_Flux_Prediction_Changes_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The changes in Maximum predicted SFU value of the solar max
NOAA_Max_Flux_Prediction_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The changes in the rate of change of prediction (smaller is an increase in the predicted value)
NOAA_Flux_Prediction_ROC_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Sunspot Prediction Changes

The chart of the changes in prediction over the months for sunspots
NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_Changes_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The changes in Maximum predicted sunspot value of the solar max
NOAA_Max_Sunspot_Prediction_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The changes in the rate of change of prediction (smaller is an increase in the predicted value)
NOAA_Sunspot_Prediction_ROC_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

NOAA/SWPC Charts

sunspot_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

Ap_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

f10_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

GFZ Potsdam Annual AP Index – The average annual AP indes 1932 to Now
Annual-average-AP-1932-present_20140505
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

KP Indices (Musical Chart)

ql_musiyymm_20140511

Magnetogram

NGK-Magnetogram_20140511
Source of these images


That concludes the report of the week ending 09 May 2014.

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
This entry was posted in AP Index, Category Force Storms, Earthquake, Hurricanes, nanoTeslas, Reports, Science and technology, Solar Flux Units, Volcano, Weekly Geophysical Reports and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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